US President Joe Biden’s team calls it a “moonshot”; critics question if it’s a “quick fix”; and millions of Afghans wonder if it’s the blueprint to end an endless war, or just make it worse.
An apparent draft of a new peace agreement from the office of the US peace envoy in Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, has been leaked after doing the rounds in the Afghan capital, Kabul. The eight tightly typed pages, which were obtained by the BBC along with a leaked three-page letter from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have kicked up a political storm over the past 48 hours.
In his letter, Mr Blinken wrote that the US did “not intend to dictate terms” to the Afghan government and the Taliban, only enable both sides to “move urgently” towards peace.
But the plain-speaking Afghan Vice-President, Amrullah Saleh, fired straight back, saying Afghanistan would “never accept a bossy and imposed peace”.
“They can make decisions on their troops, not the people of Afghanistan,” Mr Saleh said.
A Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, told the BBC they were “still studying” the draft agreement. But he also stressed that they expect the US to meet the terms of the deal they signed last year. In other words, pull out the remaining 10,000 US-led Nato forces by 1 May, or else.
A moonshot is the kind of imagining which soars beyond “blue sky” brainstorming. It’s the biggest of ideas to solve the very biggest of problems. In Afghanistan, it’s nothing less than life and death: how, after two long decades, to withdraw without precipitating a spiral into greater violence.
“Dignified” is another new buzzword in this dreadful war: a dignified US departure; a dignified peace for Afghans.
“We do need to explore every avenue for a dignified peace to preserve rights and a fundamental set of values, including a democratic system of governance,” said the Afghan government negotiator, Nader Nadery.
Mr Khalilzad, the US envoy, landed in Kabul last week with a new sense of purpose. His presence and draft plan sparked political electricity behind the ugly high walls protecting the elegant drawing rooms of the capital. It is focusing minds in a precarious moment when Afghanistan teeters on a knife edge between war and peace.
“There’s an accelerating momentum and a greater sense of urgency,” former President Hamid Karzai told the BBC in Kabul last week. There’s even more toing and froing than usual in his heavily fortified bastion in the capital; his meeting room, with its traditional oblong arrangement of sofas and chairs, was packed on the day the BBC dropped by.
Cobbling together the “unity and inclusivity” called for in Mr Blinken’s letter is Mr Karzai’s forte. Warlords of past battles shut out by President Ashraf Ghani are being brought to the top table again, for better or worse. Some, who had reached out to the Taliban to seal their own futures and fortunes, are said to have realised that the cost of disunity could be chaos and collapse.
Mr Ghani, known to prefer an immersion in policy papers to the messy cut and thrust of politicking, is also being pushed back into the fray. In his book-lined office last month in the storied Haram Sarai, the former residence of King Zahir Shah, President Ghani hinted that this was crunch time: “Hard decisions and sacrifices lie ahead,” he told us.
But when asked about Mr Khalilzad’s previous draft of a power-sharing government, he dismissed it as “somebody sitting behind the desk, dreaming”.
So will President Ghani, who still insists he’ll only transfer power through elections, accede to this transition plan? One Afghan politician summed it up to us with an Afghan proverb: “If you don’t go to school, you’ll be taken to school.” In other words, Mr Ghani might have no choice.
And what about the country’s warlords – will they put aside age-old animosities for peace? They may, but with “hearts full of blood” – another proverb, and a warning that old feuds may not lie dormant for long.
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